It really is the economy.
June 2008 F&M College Poll: Summary of findings (PDF)
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is running strong among voters who have been hit hard by rising gas prices, job cuts and other financial woes, a new national Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows.
The freshman Democrat and likely presidential nominee from Illinois leads Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain by 6 points, 42-36, among all 1,501 registered voters surveyed in recent days.
But among Americans who have lost their health insurance, had their pay cut and couldn't afford to pay for groceries or their homes in the past year, Obama is crushing McCain, 50-27.
G. Terry Madonna, the poll director and head of F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs, said most voters believe government can solve their problems and that electing a relative outsider to the White House is their best shot.
"The Republican Party's in power and the change-oriented voters want a fresh face to deal with their problems," Madonna said. "The problem McCain is going to have is using market-oriented solutions at a time when we have trouble buying food and paying for gasoline."
The level of economic suffering, and the extent to which it is driving this year's presidential race, is striking.
In the past year:
• 24 percent of voters said they lacked health insurance.
• 21 percent had their pay cut.
• 19 percent couldn't afford to pay for medical treatment.
• 18 percent couldn't afford to buy gas.
• 16 percent couldn't afford to buy food.
Overall, more than half of the voters surveyed said they had experienced a financial hardship in the past 12 months and 42 percent said they're worse off this year than last.
The result?
An election once considered to be a referendum on the Iraq war has shifted to concern about pocket-book issues; 38 percent said the single-most-important issue driving their vote for president is the economy; only 18 percent said it was the Iraq war.
"What's remarkable is the degree to which this election, which we thought would be about Iraq, is now about a lot of personal things," Madonna said. "It is much more about how voters are feeling individually — the country is off on the wrong track, and half say their personal finances are worse."
The poll, commissioned by Hearst-Argyle television stations, was F&M's first national survey in a presidential race. The college's Center for Opinion Research polled 1,501 registered voters from June 16 through Sunday. The margin of error is 2.5 percent.
Overall, 15 percent were undecided and 7 percent said they would vote for another candidate.
In other findings, Obama led among voters under age 55, blacks, Hispanics, and those living in the Northeast and Midwest. McCain, meanwhile, led among voters over 55, non-Hispanic whites, fundamentalist Christians and military veterans.
Obama led McCain among women (44-34) and men (40-38).
Obama had a slight advantage, 36-29, among independents.
Madonna said McCain could make inroads among voters worried about the economy. The Arizona Republican is faring better than Obama when it comes to those who consider energy policies to be of utmost importance. He has said that, if elected, his policies would end the country's reliance on oil as the primary fuel for transportation by 2025.
"Energy is where he can do well," Madonna said. "And given everything he has going against him, in this environment, it's surprising that he's hanging in there as well as he is. This year is ... a horrendous environment for Republicans."
June 2008 F&M College Poll: Summary of findings (PDF)Staff writer Tom Murse can be reached at tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021.
(171)
