Aaron Zinner owns a big, drafty house in Ephrata, a place built in the mid-1800s, and in the family for nearly 100 years.
He thought of fixing the place up for the centennial. But Zinner heats the old home with oil. So even with temperatures hovering in the mid-80s last week, Zinner was feeling a chill.
"I was on a budget plan of $300 per month," said Zinner. At the end of the budget cycle, he still owed the oil company about $1,000.
"What am I going to do next year? I don't know," said Zinner. "I'm thinking I might just close off a few rooms." He's talked about replacement windows, but that would cost thousands. "With the cost of heating oil, there's a lot less [money] for everything else," he said.
And the worst is yet to come.
Here in the middle of summer any talk about the "energy crisis" focuses on the pain at the pump. But wait till you see your energy bills down the road.
PPL, the county's biggest electricity supplier, will raise rates 37 percent by 2010.
The county's biggest supplier of natural gas just increased rates by more than 11 percent, and says there could be another rate hike by the end of the year.
Home heating oil customers may be hit the hardest. At a time when many, like Zinner, are still paying off last year's bill, analysts are saying prices could hit $5 per gallon this season.
Some 34 percent of households in Lancaster County rely on oil heat, and local oil companies are trying to prepare them for the worst. Many consumers are angry. Others are terrified.
"I have customers in their 80s, great-grandmothers, literally crying on the phone — 'What am I going to do?' " said Keith Reitz, owner of Reitz Oil in Rohrerstown.
All he can tell them is: Hang on. What goes up must come down.
He hopes.
Crude oil futures set more records last week, rising as high as $147.27 Friday. But even more amazing was that heating oil prices — which usually fall during the summer months — were also headed up: 18 cents alone on Thursday, said Reitz.
"That alone tells you how out of whack this market is," said Reitz, who believes speculators have much to do with it.
"We are at $4.45 per gallon today," said Reitz Wednesday. "Last year at this time we were at $2.39 per gallon."
The federal Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that residential heating oil is expected to average $4.68 a gallon by December and $4.67 in January. In parts of some Northeastern states like Maine and Massachusetts, the price is already more than $5 per gallon.
Oil companies that offer to lock in consumers at a certain price also have to protect themselves in the event of a price spike. So they buy "insurance," said Mike DeBerdine III, chief executive officer of Rhoads Energy in Lancaster. That used to cost oil companies about 4 cents per gallon. Now, due to market volatility, it costs more than 40 cents per gallon.
Oil companies are trying to warn their customers that this year is going to be very different from last.
In May, Rhoads Energy notified its customers that monthly budget payments would be going way up. Two weeks ago, the company sent out the coupon payment books; ever since, "our phones have been ringing white hot," said DeBerdine.
"A lot of people are at the point where they just can't pay it," he said. "There's no use in sugar-coating it: It's very sad, and for a lot of families it's going to be very difficult."
A woman who works in the collections department for a regional oil firm said many customers are having a hard time paying off last year's heating bill. This year, she said, many will "have to choose between meds [medicine], food or heat."
Public assistance is available — but there may be less of it this season.
The federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program is administered by the state; last year Pennsylvania Department of Public Welfare distributed more than $200 million. But this year the federal government has allotted Pennsylvania just $142 million for the program, department press secretary Stacey Witalec said.
"We're obviously concerned because with costs rising, there's an increased need for the program with less funding," said Witalec.
Locally, cash grants of up to $100 are distributed by the Lancaster County Assistance Office; "crisis" grants up to $300 are disbursed by the Community Action Program of Lancaster County to those who run out of heating oil. CAP's Anne Floyd notes that the $300 simply won't buy as much oil this year.
"Two years ago we were paying $2.50 a gallon," said Floyd. "Last year it was $3.33 per gallon. God only knows what it's going to be this year."
Last winter 3,482 people applied for help; the agency disbursed $1.14 million in funding. It was actually an "average" year, Floyd said, but she expects the number of people seeking help might rise this year.
"With gas and electric, you pay for it after you've used it," she said. "There's not too much the utilities can do to disrupt service during the heating months. Oil, kerosene — that's another story."
That story is prompting many to seek a happier ending via a wood stove or even solar panels.
John Benner owns Dussinger's Stoves in Smoketown, where June is usually a pretty slow month. Not this year.
"There's an increased sense of urgency," said Benner. "We've had a lot of people in the last couple of weeks telling us they're being quoted prices of $4.15 to $4.59" for a gallon of heating oil. Pellet stoves and wood stoves seem a cheaper alternative.
In Gordonville, Tim Hollinger, sales manager of SunLion Energy Systems, says business is booming. "We've been getting eight to 12 calls a day," said Hollinger, many about solar radiant heating. "I've got a stack of leads on my desk about 50 people deep."
The state recently passed legislation providing rebates of up to 35 percent on the purchase and installation of certain solar systems, Hollinger noted.
Still, up-front costs can be expensive, and there's the rub: To save money this year, consumers might have to spend money — money they don't have, in part, because heating bills were so high
last year.
Aaron Zinner said he could heat his old Ephrata home more efficiently by replacing the old boiler, but that too costs thousands he doesn't have. "I even had a guy give me an estimate for a geo-thermal system, but it would cost $24,000 to put it in, minimum.
"So I guess my plan for winter will be: Buy a lottery ticket," he said.
"And wear a sweater."
Gil Smart is associate editor of the Sunday News. E-mail him at gsmart@lnpnews.com, or phone 291-8817.
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