County unlikely to feel effects of Ike

Intelligencer Journal

Published: Sep 08, 2008
00:05 EST

By TOM KNAPP, Staff

Gustav neatly skirted the area, and Hanna's drenching rain was a boon to the region's parched soil. But Ike, the latest hurricane system to cruise in from the south Atlantic, looks likely to miss Lancaster County altogether.

Ike, a Category 4 hurricane Sunday, will move across Cuba over the next 36 hours, through the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico, Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst said Sunday.

"That is a major hurricane, and it is definitely a newsmaker for Cuba, Florida and potentially the Gulf states," Horst said. "But it's hard to imagine how it would have an effect locally."

That's unlike Hanna, which weakened considerably as it swept up the coast but still dumped several inches of rain over the Lancaster area.

"Certainly, the 3 to 4 inches of rain that fell (Saturday) was really a blessing," Horst said. "Coming out of the summer, we were a little over 4 inches behind on our rainfall. We nearly wiped out the deficit in one fell swoop."

The weather Sunday was "delightful in the wake of Hanna," he added, and there's more likely today.

That means afternoon highs in the 70s or low 80s, plus a comfortable night in the upper 50s or 60s, he said.

Another front will move into the area Tuesday, bringing "a few afternoon showers, but nothing like Saturday," he added.

"The showers will be hit or miss. Some areas will get them; some won't."

Then it's a period of fall-like weather for the next few days, Horst said.

"A fall-like air mass is coming in," he said. "That means chilly autumn temperatures."

This September is turning out to be a month of contrasts, Horst said.

"Last week we hit 90 degrees twice. The humidity was up. It was a summery week. This week is seasonable, and behind that front Wednesday, we'll get a taste of fall."

It will be several days before meteorologists know for sure what route Ike will take once it crosses over Cuba and the Florida Keys, he said.

The storm will weaken by the time it hits the Gulf, he said, but Ike will likely regain strength over the warm waters there.

The question then is whether Ike will proceed into Mexico, Texas or the upper Gulf states, or if it will take a sharp bend and head up the coast.

"That's speculation. It's a week down the road," Horst said.

"But it's more likely the tropical system will continue on its west-northwest course. It may hit Louisiana."

It's very unlikely Lancaster will see another soaking rain like Saturday's again this year, however.

"Getting 3 to 4 inches of rain is a once-a-year event for us here in Lancaster. It could happen twice; the statistics stack up against it," Horst said.

"I can go out on a limb and say we've seen our tropical system for the year."

Besides heavy rains, Hanna did little damage to the county beyond downed tree limbs and power lines, although one house in Washington Boro did partly collapse after a portion of its foundation washed out in the storm. Reports indicated mostly minor flooding.

E-mail: tknapp@lnpnews.com