For years, the common philosophy was to draft running backs in each of the first two rounds of the fantasy football draft. Because of the widespread success of quarterbacks and wide receivers last season, many fantasy owners changed their strategies this year and drafted running backs with less frequency early in the draft.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
This wholesale change in draft tactics was largely an overreaction to abnormalities in 2007. Last year, 10 quarterbacks had 26 or more touchdown passes, up from just three who reached that plateau in 2006. Receivers Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens were in the top five in scoring touchdowns last year. Additionally, 65 percent of all scores came through the air, so receivers became more valuable than running backs.
This year, perhaps due greatly to the absence of Tom Brady, the impact of wide receivers is much lower. The frequency of passing touchdowns is down to 57 percent.
After considering all the touchdowns scored by tight ends, the receiving touchdowns by running backs, and the rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks and wide receivers, we can analyze the total number of touchdowns scored by wide receivers and running backs last year and this year.
In 2007, wide receivers accounted for 493 total touchdowns, four of which were rushing touchdowns. Running backs, on the other hand, scored 398 touchdowns, with 53 coming through the air. Of the total touchdowns scored between backs and receivers, 55 percent went to receivers.
Compare those totals to the season in progress. Wide receivers have scored 131 total touchdowns, including two on the ground. Running backs have increased their scoring tallies, reaching the end zone 148 times this year. Backs have caught 19 touchdown passes. The ratio of touchdowns between running backs and receivers now favors the backfield players, who have 53 percent of those scores.
Furthermore, of the 11 players with a dozen or more touchdowns in 2007, six of them were receivers. Currently, 10 players have reached pay dirt at least five times. Only three of them — Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin and Chris Chambers — are receivers.
True, five weeks is a relatively short period upon which to base trends, especially during a 17-week schedule. However, rushing scores are often inversely proportional to temperatures; backs tend to find the end zones more in cold-weather games. Therefore, the scoring developments for this season should continue to favor running backs.
Fantasy owners can incorporate the knowledge of this data when they set their weekly lineups. In most cases, a running back is a better option in a flex position than a receiver is. The ability to score touchdowns is not the sole determinant of the best players in fantasy football, but the ratios described above present a good paradigm for all of fantasy football.
For example, in standard scoring leagues, 18 running backs have more fantasy points than the ninth-ranked wide receiver. Twenty-five backs have higher fantasy totals than the 15th receiver, and the 27th running back outscores the 16th-ranked receiver on the fantasy tote board.
When discussing the value of running backs, a natural follow-up question relates to the worth of touchdown vultures. There are three running backs in the top 10 in the league in rushing touchdowns who are ranked no higher than 40th in the league in rushing yardage.
Tim Hightower has had a surprising rookie season, reaching the end zone five times in his first five games. Although he is mostly a goal-line back, he has averaged seven carries and 22 yards a game. If Hightower does not score a touchdown, he is of little significance.
Fortunately for fantasy owners, he will continue to score touchdowns. Arizona has a potent offense, and Edgerrin James rarely sees the ball inside the 10-yard line. Hightower is an excellent option as a flex player.
This season has seen another Denver Bronco running back defy expectations and become a valuable fantasy player. Michael Pittman has received fewer touches than Tim Hightower, yet Pittman has still entered the end zone four times this year. Despite not scoring in either Week 4 or Week 5, Pittman rushed for more than 30 yards in both games.
With Selvin Young out with an injured groin and Andre Hall falling out of favor in the Mile High City, Pittman will get the majority of touches today and possibly longer. Anticipate Pittman having a great game, even against a steady Jacksonville defense.
LenDale White entered the season expecting to split carries with rookie Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Those plans have changed, and White has become almost exclusively a goal-line back. He has five scores, but his carries have decreased significantly in the last two weeks.
White averaged 16 touches a game for the first three weeks, and then he only had 14 carries for 17 yards in the last two games combined. Unlike Hightower and Pittman, LenDale White has become expendable, and owners ought to avoid relying on him when he returns from bye next week.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
(61)
