I agree that the doom-and-gloom reporting may be over stating things and is harmful as it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, facts is facts.

Lancaster Unemployment: Aug-07 3.5%, Aug-08 4.6%; still extremely low, but a 110 basis point jump is huge

Lancaster Housing Sales: Sept-07 444, Sept-08 333; that is a 25% drop which is pretty big

Year to date building permits: Aug-07 761, Aug-08 619; nearly a 20% drop, not that bad

Unemployment is rising (Sept numbers should be a big jump based upon what occurred nationally) and housing is slowing. A big driver of our local economy is housing. As resale activity and permit issues tighten, the impact will be felt throughout our county. To what degree is the variable.
PS-not to be argumentative, but our economy is not a free market. free-ish, maybe.

Is unemployment based on just the number of people out of work, or is it strictly people actively searching but not finding employment?

The pop you might have heard as you clicked submit was the air rushing out of the can of worms you just opened.

"What is the unemployment rate telling us" and "how is it determined" are two heated and controversial questions. The reason is the answer changes (and typically to the benefit of those who report it). That said, it's still all we got (but take with a grain of salt).

But to answer your question, the unemployment rate refers to those actively looking for work. Many feel true unemployment is much higher.

For those interested, www.shadowstats.com is a website run by a smarty-pants academic. He uses his own algorithms to provide, what he claims are, true government statistics (eg unemployment, cpi)-its fee based though.

Touche.

Housing, we over built, we should have stopped long ago. But that's also argumentative.

A good friend of mine was laid off. 25 years at the same job.

Many of our customers have been laying people off. One of the biggest employers in Lancaster County recently laid off dozens of people, including a half-dozen I personally worked with on a regular basis.


See above. I can name several medium-to-large employers in Lancaster County where workers are either on an occasional four-day week, or have been sent home without pay.


Since my pay is stagnant, and my expenses continue to escalate, it is getting difficult. Fortunately, the house will be paid off in a few years; I'll just continue to cut back on other things for now.


I've cut out most of the cable tv "extras" I used to pay for. My wife has health problems that keep her home much of the time, she watches television to keep occupied; if it were just me, the cable tv would be gone by now. My wife refuses to give up her cell phone, she tries to justify the expense because it has no long-distance fees for calling her daughter who lives out of state.


I did. I really liked that car, too.


It is DEFINITELY a recession. Companies have all but eliminated capital spending on new equipment and/or upgrades. The equipment I service is only being utilized for a fraction of the time it was a year ago. Practically every business I deal with has cut back spending in some way. And a few of our smaller customers have either been bought out at fire-sale rates, or gone out of business completely.