John McCain says defiantly that he will "fool the pundits" and win not only Pennsylvania but the White House.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Harrisonburg, Va. on Tuesday.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain speaks
at a rally in Fayetteville, N.C., Tuesday.
New public-opinion polls show the Republican presidential nominee has a tough row to hoe.
Despite numerous campaign stops in the state in recent weeks, McCain and running mate Sarah Palin still trail Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden here by double digits with less than a week to go, a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows.
"In my lifetime, I have not seen someone come back a week out and knock off 12 points," said poll director G. Terry Madonna.
Similar polls show McCain and Palin are in serious jeopardy of losing seven other key battleground states as well, including four won by President Bush in 2004, in what some analysts say could result in an Election Day landslide.
New AP-GfK surveys show Obama winning among early voters, favored on almost every issue, and benefiting from the country's sour mood not only here but in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
In the F&M poll, Obama holds a 13-point lead, 53 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters in Pennsylvania, and a 12-point lead, 51 percent to 39 percent, among all registered voters surveyed.
The findings are similar to those in other surveys by Quinnipiac University, Muhlenberg College and AP-GfK, which have Obama leading by 12 points.
"For the last three weeks, after the financial crisis, after the second debate, I think this election has stabilized and it hasn't shown any movement at all," said Madonna, the director of F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
"McCain's campaigned heroically and vociferously and made every point he can, but in this state the numbers have remained static," he said.
The AP-GfK battleground state polls seem to confirm what some McCain aides acknowledge privately — their chances of winning are low.
Obama holds solid leads in Ohio (7 points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9 points) and Virginia (7 points), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Obama can tally 252 by merely reclaiming states won by John Kerry in 2004. Ohio alone has 20 electoral votes. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9 and Virginia 13.
In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling, two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Obama is throwing his time and money into the Sunshine State, which has 27 votes, part of a strategy to create many routes to victory and push toward a landslide of 300 or more electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 votes.
McCain's biggest problem is the economy, Madonna said.
"This election has gone from being about the Iraq war to being almost exclusively about the economy," he said. "And McCain is seen as continuing the incumbent's policies by too many voters. Voters are reluctant to throw their support to someone who they think will continue Bush's economic policies."
Almost half (47 percent) of voters surveyed by F&M said the economy was the most important issue in their vote for president. Only 18 percent believe President Bush is doing an excellent or good job, while 54 percent say he is doing a poor job and 27 percent rate his handling of the economy "fair."
Meantime, more than half of the voters surveyed said they believe that McCain will mostly continue Bush's economic policies and a large majority, 62 percent, believes McCain will continue the incumbent president's foreign policies.
More than half, 52 percent, said they would be concerned if McCain was elected president, mostly because of his views on policy issues and a perception that he will carry on the policies of the Bush administration.
The F&M poll was conducted from Oct. 21 through Sunday by the college's Center for Opinion Research. Its margin of error was 3.5 percent in the survey of all 790 registered voters, and 4.2 percent in the small sample of likely voters.
In one of the most stunning findings, the F&M poll showed Obama winning in Republican-rich central Pennsylvania, a 29-county swath of the state that includes Lancaster County.
Republicans outnumber Democrats in those counties by more than 244,000 voters and hold a registration edge of 49 percent to 38 percent. Yet Obama is beating McCain here 46-44 in the survey of all registered voters, and 47-46 among likely voters.
That McCain is trailing in the area of this state that has traditionally been the bread and butter of GOP candidates suggests a bleak outlook for his chances to win the state on Tuesday.
In the 2004 election, President Bush beat Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in Central Pennsylvania, 62 percent to 37 percent — and still couldn't muster enough votes statewide to capture the state's 21 electoral votes.
In the 2000 election, Bush beat that year's Democratic candidate, Al Gore, in this part of the state, 60 percent to 37 percent — and, yes, still lost the state.
"McCain can't win if he can't get up close to 60 percent," Madonna said. "You can't have a 54-46 contest in Central Pennsylvania and expect him to win."
The F&M poll was produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL 8, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, WTAE-TV, WPVI-TV6/ABC and Times Shamrock Newspapers.
(This article contains information from The Associated Press.)
Staff writer Tom Murse can be reached at tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021.
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