Pa.'s electoral votes in full swing

Bird's-Eye View

Intelligencer Journal

Published: Nov 03, 2008
00:49 EST

Lancaster

By DAVE PIDGEON, Staff Writer

America votes Tuesday, and locally polls open at 7 a.m. The only question left is whether Republican Sen. John McCain can pull off an epic upset and take Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes from Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.

McCain and surrogates say their internal numbers have the race for Pennsylvania really close, but independent voter surveys suggest that Obama has an average lead of about 7 percent, according to an analysis by realclearpolitics.com.

Obama's lead, however, is about half what it was two weeks ago.

As the returns come in Tuesday, here's what to watch for to see who wins Pennsylvania:

Battle for the 'burbs
Obama most likely will take Philadelphia's urban areas by as much as 70 percent to 30 percent, which means McCain needs a victory in the "collar" counties of Montgomery, Bucks, Chester and Delaware. In those heavily-populated areas, voter-registration rolls show nearly even number of Democrats and Republicans. If McCain comes away with a 2- or 3-point margin, he's still in the game.

Iron, coke, chromium steel
Traditionally the Lehigh Valley, Northampton and Lehigh counties, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 70,000 voters, votes the way Philadelphia and the northern suburbs vote. The last Republican the Lehigh Valley supported was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

This year, though, provides an opportunity for a change. It's possible Philadelphia along with Bucks and Montgomery counties could go Democrat while the Lehigh votes Republican. The Lehigh Valley strongly supported Democrat Hillary Clinton over Obama during the spring primary by a 2 to 1 margin, and the area is full of culturally conservative, white and veteran voters, considered McCain strengths.

Conservative to a T?
Here's where we come into play. Counties like Lancaster, Columbia, Franklin, Fulton, Sullivan and Tioga gave Republican George W. Bush as much as a 70-30 split over Democrat John Kerry during the 2004 election.

That kind of victory margin, though, was not enough. Kerry defeated Bush statewide by a mere 2 percentage points because Kerry split the Philadelphia 'burbs, won the Lehigh Valley comfortably and took nearly the entire Pittsburgh and southwest region.

The vast swath between Philly and Pittsburgh and along the New York border are considered strongholds for Republican politics, but this year with 500,000 new Democrats on the voter rolls — many of whom hail from inside this area — questions remain about whether McCain can equal Bush's 2004 performance.

As G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College said in the Lancaster New Era last week: "You can't have a 54-46 contest in Central Pennsylvania and expect (McCain) to win."

The last outpost
That brings us to Pittsburgh and the southwest, a pro-union, pro-labor area that traditionally votes Democrat, but it can surprise people. For example, in 1988 the city of Pittsburgh broke with the rest of the southwest and supported George H.W. Bush.

And the area strongly supported Sen. Hillary Clinton in April, which means there's no coincidence McCain and running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin have spent a little time recently talking to the Pittsburgh audience. If McCain's to have a chance, he needs at least Allegheny County to go his way.

Pennsylvania is one of the most compelling, politically diverse states in the country. There are 1.2 million more Democrats than Republicans here, but that figure is no barometer for how the state will vote.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, his path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency is made easier because he likely will lose Virginia and Colorado, two states collectively that make up 22 electoral votes.

If Obama wins Pennsylvania, his path to the White House becomes much easier, even if he loses Ohio or Florida, because he's favored in traditional-GOP states like Colorado and Virginia.

Quotes of the week
"And let me tell you why I want to crush them. They have run one of the most hateful, despicable, dirty, disgraceful, disgusting campaigns in the history of American politics. They have called Barack Obama every name in the book. They have made insinuations and innuendoes that have no relationship to the truth."
— Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell at Millersville University about the McCain campaign.

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"He needs a Hail Mary or a bolt of lightning, something to change this dynamic."
— G. Terry Madonna on McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvania.

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"I have fought for you most of my life and in places where defeat meant more than returning to the Senate. There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to back down when the stakes are high."
— Sen. John McCain during a rally in Hershey last week.

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"I just want all of you to know that if we see this kind of dedication on Election Day, there is no way that we're not going to bring change to America."

— Sen. Barack Obama to a crowd of about 9,000 people at a cold, rainy rally near Philadelphia.

E-mail: dpidgeon@lnpnews.com