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NEWS ANALYSISYou've heard it time and time again in the last two years — how important Lancaster County would be to winning the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Well, it was.
To Democrat Barack Obama.
The U.S. senator from Illinois made substantial inroads in Lancaster City's traditionally Republican suburbs, one of the most important factors in his large victory statewide. He came closer to winning this county than any Democrat has since 1964.
Republican John McCain's relatively slim victory here — he won the county with less than 56 percent of the vote — was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's massive Election Day margins in the Philadelphia suburbs. McCain's plurality here was, roughly, only a third of President Bush's in 2004.
The results reaffirmed the gradual erosion of the Republican Party's one-time Election Day dominance here and underscores the difficulty the GOP faces in scoring statewide victories in the future.
"The Republicans are at a very important crossroads in Pennsylvania," said G. Terry Madonna, the director of Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Politics and Public Affairs. "Does this state become New Jersey, more heavily Democratic statewide and only to be won by a Republican on the rarest of occasions?
"In Lancaster County, one of the last bastions of Republican control, the Democrats have far exceeded what anyone a decade ago would have expected they would do," said Madonna. "What this does is energize the minority party."
Obama claimed Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes despite an all-out push by McCain to wrest away a state Republicans haven't won since 1988.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had 3,163,814 votes, or 55 percent, and McCain had 2,534,548, or 44 percent.
The Democrat received decisive support in Philadelphia and did well in its suburbs, including a win in Chester County. Obama also received support in northeastern and southwestern parts of the state — areas crucial to McCain.
The candidates split the white vote, but Obama held a commanding lead among black and Hispanic voters, according to an analysis of information from voters interviewed as they left polling places. The interviews were conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
McCain won Lancaster County by 27,185 — more than 12 percent — of the 223,708 votes cast in the race for president. He got 55.6 percent of the vote to Obama's 43.5 percent. That's a remarkably small margin given the county GOP's voter edge of 72,057.
And by comparison, Bush won here in 2000 with 66 percent of the vote and a plurality of 60,932 and couldn't carry the state. The Republican president won the county again in 2004 with 66 percent of the vote and a plurality of 71,263, and again failed to win Pennsylvania.
The bottom line: "In this region, you can't do it with 55 percent of the vote," said Madonna. "You almost have to go back to the Reagan era, do what he was doing and win 70 percent here if you want to win Pennsylvania," Madonna said.
Obama came closer to winning Lancaster County than any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson beat Republican Barry Goldwater here in 1964. He did so by appealing not only to urban voters but to suburban voters, including those in the populous townships bordering the city — East Hempfield, Lancaster, Manheim, and East and West Lampeter.
Republicans outnumber Democrats in those five suburbs by nearly 17,000 voters, but McCain won by only 3,391 votes there. Obama also won in some districts in Manor Township that are near the city.
Turnout in those townships, at nearly 72 percent, was markedly higher than it was in more rural, historically conservative areas friendly to McCain such as southern and eastern Lancaster County — Providence, Martic, Little Britain, Salisbury, Sadsbury and Paradise townships.
Obama won overwhelmingly — by more than 11,000 votes — in the city, getting nearly 76 percent of the vote to McCain's 23 percent.
Lancaster Mayor Rick Gray, a Democrat who campaigned vigorously for Obama here, said the city's suburbs are growing more moderate with the influx of middle-class professionals.
"I think what's happening is the Republican Party is going through some of the same catharsis the Democratic Party went through in the 1970s," said Gray. "We became so liberal that we appealed to our base so we would get 35 percent of the vote.
"I think the Republican Party, to a certain degree, has done the same thing to itself. I think it appeals to a specific base. A lot of people are ideologues. But they lose a lot of the moderate, centrist people who identify themselves as Republicans but are more willing to split a ticket and pick a candidate who provides a moderate course," Gray said.
A good example of that willingness to split a ticket for example, can be seen in the vote for state attorney general here. Republican Tom Corbett beat his Democratic opponent, John Morganelli, by more than 2-to-1 in the county.
Corbett got 148,155 votes, more than Bush got here in 2004.
Even though he was on the same ballot with Corbett, McCain received 23,680 fewer votes here.
Scott Martin, a Republican county commissioner who co-chaired McCain's campaign here, said it was clear that Obama benefited from Democratic registration gains and that many Republicans split their tickets.
"Obviously, (the) candidate means a lot," he said.
"It really tells you that you've got to do your job with voter registration," Martin said. "The bottom line is, you have to continue to grow your party."
Staff writer Tom Murse can be reached at tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021.
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