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In the early goings of the NFL season, the decisions that face fantasy owners often revolve around determining whether a play is good or bad. Roughly one-third of the way through the campaign, owners should have a relatively good idea of what players are prone to good performances and who is looking like a benchwarmer.
For instance, almost half of fantasy owners with Terrell Owens on their rosters have deservingly put the underachieving malcontent on the bench. Unless the Buffalo offense moves the ball or he shows signs of life, T.O. is no longer a must-start fantasy receiver.
Another good reason to sit a player is because of injury. Willie Parker was serviceable in Week 3 before missing the next two weeks. Parker is probable for today's game against Cleveland; until he proves his health, owners are wise to stay away from him.
Now that owners have a better idea who is good, who is bad, who is healthy and who is hurt, they need to avoid the tendency to overanalyze matchups when determining whom to start and whom to bench. Looking at players' opponents can be an effective tactic when owners are trying to decide between two similar performers but can also cause unnecessary consternation.
Owners choosing between, say, Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler, two quarterbacks that have put up similar numbers this year may want to look to the signal callers' opponents to see whom to start. Warner faces Seattle's ninth-ranked pass defense, whereas Cutler faces Atlanta's 22nd-ranked squad. All else equal, Cutler makes sense to start this week. When the two alternatives are not nearly as close, though, owners need to be wary of over-thinking the situation.
In Week 5, two-thirds of leagues saw Cedric Benson on the bench because he was facing the Baltimore Ravens. Not only did Benson end the Ravens' streak of limiting opponents to double-digit rushing totals, he also rushed for more yards than any other back last weekend. Benson leads the league in rushing, and owners that insisted on benching the remade star lost out on a great outing.
Although it was not nearly the faux pas that sitting Benson was, one-sixth of Michael Turner's owners thought it would be wise to put him on the bench at San Francisco in Week 5. Turner responded with three scores. Owners were right to be concerned with Turner's matchup, just not to the extent that they put two or even three other backs ahead of him in the starting lineup.
This week, some fantasy owners will be tempted to start Jason Campbell hosting Kansas City's 29th-ranked pass defense. Except in the case where a fantasy owner has no other legitimate options, Campbell has not proven himself to be a worthy starter, regardless of his opponent.
On the other hand, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers are must-start fantasy quarterbacks. They have been productive this season, and owners did not draft them in the first few rounds merely to have them sit on the bench.
Granted, Brees has not thrown for a touchdown since Week 2, and he is facing the Giants' top-ranked pass defense. Still, Brees is an elite passer in the league and deserves to be starting in many more than the 75 percent of leagues in which he is currently under center. Rivers has four 250-yard games and six touchdowns. Even though his Week 5 opponent Denver touts the league's fifth-best pass defense, Rivers is better than the vast majority of other quarterbacks.
This same line of reasoning extends to players outside of quarterback. Chris Johnson got owners' hopes up after his dazzling 346-yard, three-touchdown showing versus Houston in Week 2. Since then, he has been rather ordinary on a terrible Titans team. Johnson is still no worse than a No. 2 running back. He will have more trouble with the Patriots' 11th-ranked rush defense than he might facing weaker opponents, but it is unlikely that fantasy owners have a deep enough running corps that Johnson is their third- or fourth-best choice.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
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