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Some feel swine flu cases are waning
Intelligencer Journal
Lancaster New Era
Nov 06, 2009 00:03 EST
By CINDY STAUFFER, Staff Writer

Children are back in school, hospital emergency departments are returning to normal and worried patients are no longer inundating pediatricians with worried telephone calls.

The swine flu seems to be on the wane in parts of Lancaster County.

"This wave has peaked, let's say it that way," said Lampeter-Strasburg School District superintendent Robert Frick.

The number of swine flu cases has been decreasing for the past two weeks, according to some school and health officials here.

A spike in absentees and medical visits in late October may have been fueled by worry as well as by illness, officials believe.

As time has passed, people have become more educated about the swine flu, which has been a mild illness for most people.

"There's less hysteria," said Ruth Crawford-Fisher, Hempfield's director of student services. "The more information people have, the more calm we will see things."

However, the state is cautioning people not to become complacent about the swine flu.

"We're continuing to see a lot of influenza activity everywhere," said health department spokeswoman Stacy Kriedeman. "We don't want to give the impression that influenza is going away."

The peak in cases at the end of October was "truly extraordinary," Kriedeman said. Even if there has been a decline, the virus is still out there and people need to continue to wash their hands and take other precautions, she said.

In Lancaster County, schools bore the brunt of the late October outbreak, as young people are the main victims of the swine flu, caused by the H1N1 virus.

Two weeks ago, L-S was seeing absentee rates of about 20 percent, quadruple its normal rate of about 5 percent. Hempfield had more than 400 students absent from its high school on a single day. Solanco saw its absentee rates double from one day to the next at one elementary school.

This week, attendance rates are at or close to normal levels at the three districts.

In the Manheim Township School District, spokeswoman Marcie Brody said, "The general impression in our buildings is that we have had fewer kids out this week. We seemed to have peaked last week but this week there have been fewer absences."

Solanco's high absentee rate may have been caused in part by parents who were more proactive in keeping kids home from school if they showed any signs of illness, said spokesman Keith Kaufman.

"That was one of the messages put out there," he said. "It's always good not to send a sick child to school."

Roseville Pediatrics in Manheim Township was experiencing overloaded telephone lines at the end of October. The practice was getting calls from parents with sick children and parents with questions about sick children, practice manager Danielle Myers said.

Parents of infants and toddlers with fevers or flu-like symptoms seemed particularly concerned, as their children are not able to communicate how sick they actually feel.

"It was on everyone's mind," she said. "I do feel it has subsided."

Some hospital emergency departments, which were seeing a lot of patients with flu-like symptoms, also have seen a drop in that kind of activity.

Lancaster General Hospital saw a 25 percent increase in those kinds of patients in the last two weeks of October.

Things got so hectic in its ER that the hospital temporarily instituted a separate process for handling patients with flu-like symptoms, said Norma Ferdinand, senior vice president and chief quality and nursing officer.

Ferdinand said some patients were coming into the ER just to be tested.

"Once the word got out that we're not testing unless you are admitted to the hospital, people seemed more comfortable with isolating themselves and treating the flu like it is normally treated," she said.

Lancaster Regional Medical Center saw similar increases in patients with flu-like symptoms. The numbers are down, but not quite back to normal at the College Avenue hospital, spokeswoman Denyse Kling said.

"It has decreased, but just in the last couple of days," she said, noting the number of cases at the hospital peaked over the weekend.

Some hospitals still are busy with patients with flu-like symptoms. Ephrata Community Hospital has not seen a drop-off and Heart of Lancaster Regional Medical Center in Warwick Township is doing a steady business.

And hospital and school officials everywhere said they don't know what's coming next.

Seasonal flu has not hit here yet. Swine flu may be down, but not out, they said.

"We could see another wave go through," Kling said. "We're not ruling that out."

Will swine flu be done by the time seasonal flu starts, which is usually around January? Officials are watching and wondering.

"It will be an interesting winter," Ferdinand said.

cstauffer@lnpnews.com


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Showing 5 most recent comments out of 20 total TalkBack comments about this article
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QUOTE (lee41 @ Nov 5 2009, 10:59 PM)


And the key to that graphic is not the top number, deaths per year. The key is looking at these weeks (39-42) compared to the same weeks in prior years.... which had NO pediatric flu deaths, as opposed to 12-14 deaths per week this year. PEDIATRIC deaths, in case you missed that part.
LoveLanco
QUOTE (LoveLanco @ Nov 5 2009, 11:01 PM)
And the key to that graphic is not the top number, deaths per year. The key is looking at these weeks (39-42) compared to the same weeks in prior years.... which had NO pediatric flu deaths, as opposed to 12-14 deaths per week this year. PEDIATRIC deaths, in case you missed that part.


but how can it be claimed these are flu deaths if 1) only a small % of those with flu-like symptoms are being tested and 2) the tests are inconclusive for those tested*?

anyone meeting a handful of flu-like symptoms are being diagnosed with h1n1. this creates a large variable.

a comparison of total pediatric deaths for the same time period would be helpful to ensure the cdc graphic is not artificially bolstered due to misdiagnosis. if there is still a spike for all deaths, then we can more conclusively state there is something unique going on.

*even with an accurate positive, that too is misleading for it is very possible to carry a particular virus and not have the illness manifest
WinstonTheLastHuman
The "assume H1N1" and save the burden of testing is for the run of the mill, go home, stay home, rest, hydrate, maybe here's some Tamiflu. The adults and kids who wind up in ICU, nevermind deceased, certainly ARE being tested.
LoveLanco
QUOTE (LoveLanco @ Nov 6 2009, 11:19 AM)
The "assume H1N1" and save the burden of testing is for the run of the mill, go home, stay home, rest, hydrate, maybe here's some Tamiflu. The adults and kids who wind up in ICU, nevermind deceased, certainly ARE being tested.


that seems to go against what i have read in this cbs news article and the cdc website. the rationale is the treatment will be the same regardless so why bother test and incur greater costs.

but even if all cases were tested, the test is inconclusive due to the high number of false positives and the inability to know the amount of virus present in actual h1n1 positive cases-it is the nature of the test. that is why i suggest looking at macro pediatric deaths for the same time period which would eliminate possible misdiagnosis from the original graphic.
WinstonTheLastHuman
QUOTE (WinstonTheLastHuman @ Nov 6 2009, 01:21 PM)
but even if all cases were tested, the test is inconclusive due to the high number of false positives and the inability to know the amount of virus present in actual h1n1 positive cases


...which goes back to my very first post on this thread. I believe that this is along the same line of thinking that the nurse I referred to was speaking of as well.
4sure
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