Media Center
Related Topics
Related Stories
Before we get into framing the Phillies' present and speculating on their future, let's get the second-guessing and if-onlys out of the way.
The World Series swung on A.J. Burnett's performance in Game 2, it says here.
Burnett is the kind of pitcher — right-handed, a hothouse flower with great stuff but shaky control — that the Phils' lineup ought to get rich from.
That's exactly what happened in Game 5.
But it didn't in Game 2, partly to Burnett's credit, partly thanks to a plate ump with a huge strike zone (which also helped Pedro Martinez), and partly because the quality of Phils' at-bats was off a little.
If the Phillies win that game, and go up 2-0 with the next three in Philly, they win the series. They might win it easily.
(It can turn that much, on that little. The Phillies won last year's World Series in five games. Easy, right?
Go back and replay that series, taking away Carlos Ruiz' little dribbler down the third-base line in the ninth inning of Game 3. Not so easy, maybe.)
Here's another one: Brad Lidge entered Game 4 in the ninth inning with the score tied.
Ryan Madson pitched the ninth in Game 5 with a three-run lead.
What if Charlie Manuel uses Madson in the first instance and Lidge in the second?
(Lidge wouldn't even have been on my postseason roster, but if you have to use him, the ninth up three is the time.)
Having said all of that, the Yankees didn't necessarily win because they're the better team, but they probably are.
Their main weakness is pitching depth. The Yankees outslugged it in the regular season and were able to ignore it in the postseason, winning it all with a three-man rotation.
Also, the Yankees are always assumed to win because they buy the best players. That's always simplistic and during the club's last heydey, 1996-2001, it was deceptive at best.
But it's as true, in the case of the 2009 team, as it's ever been.
The biggest pitching free agent of last offseason was CC Sabathia, and the Yankees got him. The biggest position-player free agent of last season was Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees got him. Burnett, also, they simply went out and bought.
The Phillies, on the other hand, have built their team by being smart and lucky and, yes, by spending money.
They'll have to keep doing all three of those things to keep up with the Steinbrenners.
Financially and in baseball terms, they're in position to play for the marbles again next year.
They have about $109 million tied up in 2010 contracts. That's with no current deal for Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, Matt Stairs, Pedro Martinez, Eric Bruntlett, Clay Condrey, Ruiz and J.A. Happ.
Myers, Park, Eyre and Martinez are the only noteworthy free agents.
Each of those four, individually, are probably better than 50/50 to stay. As a group, figure three of the four will be back.
Yes, including Myers, who has little trade value now but could be insurance against Lidge not finding himself.
Of the current starting eight, six are championship-caliber players age 30 or under: Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth.
Of those, only Victorino and Ruiz aren't under contract through 2010, and neither is eligible for free agency.
Of the other two everyday starters, the Phillies probably overpaid for Raul Ibanez (signed through 2011) but it seems to be working.
The club has a $5 million option on Pedro Feliz, who isn't much of a hitter but can flat play third base. He's not quite a bargain at that price, but he probably stays so money can be spent elsewhere.
The club has some flaws that can be addressed, others that probably can't. Howard probably isn't going to hit lefties, but it's not like they're going to platoon him.
Rollins is probably never going to master the strike zone, but they won't be moving him from the leadoff spot.
But Cole Hamels can learn another pitcher, a sinker or slider or cutter, which would move him to the first rank of lefty starters.
Chase Utley can hit to left field once in a while. Jayson Werth can get a little more disciplined and consistent.
The Phils can find a utility infielder (Mark DeRosa? Placido Polanco?) who can hit some and rest Utley or Rollins or Ruiz.
They'll have Lee for a full season (assuming they pick up their $9 million option on him, which, you know, duh).
Recall what useful bullpen pieces lefty J.C. Romero and righty Clay Condrey, who missed the postseason with injuries, can be.
That's all relatively small stuff. For bigger stuff, recall how much mileage the Yankees got, this postseason, from the Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte trio.
The Phillies probably have as good a rotation as the Yanks 1-5, but no three like those three.
Recall that Roy Halladay is still out there, wanting to win and seeing little chance of that happening in Toronto, and probably cheaper in the winter than he'd have been in July.
Just sayin'.
The Philadelphia Daily News' Rich Hofmann, as calm and reasoned as a Philly sports columnist has ever been, began a sentence the other day thusly:
"Same time, next year, this could be the Phillies' playoff rotation: ..."
Note the routine assumption that there will be a playoff rotation, because there will be playoffs.
This is the neighborhood the Phils are living in now. It's an excellent place to be. Let's hope they intend to stay there.
Mike Gross is assistant sports editor of the Sunday News. E-mail him at mgross@lnpnews.com.
(341)
