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But four straight times … well, that's a legitimate trend.
Pending home sales here in October rose 26 percent from their October 2008 level, the Lancaster County Association of Realtors said Friday.
Pending home sales have surpassed their year-earlier level by more than 25 percent for four straight months, according to the numbers.
And it's the fifth consecutive month that's topped its 2008 counterpart.
LCAR president Scott Ulrich said these last few months of figures show that "a strong recovery" is under way.
"We're going in the right direction. It's steady growth, good growth. We're doing well," he said.
Unlike the boom times of several years ago, when sales soared — and so did prices — the current uptick in sales comes as prices are declining.
"It's not craziness, where you pay anything today because it will be more expensive tomorrow," said Ulrich. "It's not like when prices were going out of sight."
Today's market differs from those go-go times in other significant ways.
First, the string of increases comes in comparison to the recession-riddled numbers of fall 2008.
Over the last five Octobers, pending home sales have been as high as 485 (2006) and as low as 311 (2008). This October brought 392 pending home sales here.
Second, the market's recovery continues to get a potent push from the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, introduced early this year.
The impact is seen in the surge in sales of entry-level homes, the biggest category by far.
The entry-level category, priced from $100,001 to $200,000, leaped 40.8 percent to 221 pending sales from 157 a year before, the LCAR report said.
(The credit, which was to expire Nov. 30, was extended and expanded to existing homeowners earlier this month.)
But nearly all other categories fared well, too, not just entry-level homes.
Pending $200,001-to-$300,000 sales grew 17.2 percent, to 75. Pending $300,001-to-$400,000 sales increased 62.5 percent, to 26. The $400,001-and-up category improved 50 percent, to nine.
The only category to fall was homes priced up to $100,000; it slid 10.3 percent, to 61 pending sales.
Pending sales refer to homes that are placed under contract, or under agreement. LCAR considers pending sales the most current indicator of market activity.
A home typically goes under contract a month or two before the transaction gets settled, meaning the deal gets finalized.
The number of homes sold here, like the number of pending deals, was higher in October as well. Settled deals were 462, up 24.2 percent from 372 in October 2008.
While pending and settled transactions both were on the rise in October, prices continued to soften.
The average sales price was $179,800, down 4.2 percent; the median price was off 2.3 percent to $166,000.
