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Forecasters say a white winter likely awaits us.
"This great stretch of weather we've had, I see that coming to an end," said Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst. "Then the fun begins."
How much snow could we get?
The county's average snowfall is 26 inches.
We haven't hit that milestone for a number of years. Last year, we had just 20 inches. The winter before, we had a mere 10.8 inches.
Horst believes we could see about 36 inches of snow this year, about 10 inches above normal, and about two to three times more than we've had in the last two winters combined.
You can thank (or curse) El Niño for this.
The surface temperatures of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean control what kind of a winter we have here.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures give us a La Niña winter, which is warmer and drier in the Northeast, like last year.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures give us an El Niño winter, which is wetter and sometimes cooler here.
An El Niño winter establishes a strong storm track across the South. Storms come from southern California, track across the southern United States and then track up the East Coast as a nor'easter.
"The thing I am anticipating is a greater frequency of coastal storms," Horst said.
That can have a notable effect on snowfall here. For example, last year we had just one nor'easter, on March 2, which gave us 6 inches of snow.
"This winter, our eyes will be watching that southern storm track," Horst said. "That may mean four, five, six storms take that track. It doesn't mean we get hammered four, five, six times, but there is going to be the opportunity to develop these."
Past El Niño winters have given us snow totals of anywhere from 35 to 63 inches. The latter amount fell here during the winter of 2002-03, the most recent winter with an El Niño influence.
"I wouldn't plan on 60 inches," Horst said of this winter, but added, "I think it will be a pretty good winter for people to get out and enjoy it. I think the ski industry should do OK.
The only caveat is that if the waters in the equatorial Pacific cool too much, we could have a "super El Niño" winter, which would be more wet than white.
Horst does not think that is going to happen, but it could.
Horst is joined by AccuWeather, a forecasting service based in State College, and the National Weather Service in predicting an El Niño winter.
AccuWeather is predicting a colder, snowy winter in our part of the country. However, the National Weather Service gives us equal chances of above-normal, below-normal,or near-normal precipitation, but forecasts cooler temperatures here.
Horst is predicting temperatures that are near-normal to a few degrees below.
"It may come in close to normal," he said. "It may be a degree below if we have a good snow cover."
AccuWeather Forecast
